The start of the Industrial Devolution

It is practically impossible to guess when the market has bottomed out. The stock exchanges around the world exhibit a phenomenon called a dead cat bounce. This is where prices fall so far and so fast that bargain hunters jump in and buy worthless stock. It looks like a recovery but it is not, the stock is still worthless.

The same will happen with the current recession. I believe it is a significant moment; the beginning of the Industrial Devolution.

The sacred mantra of ‘growth’ – recited by every capitalist economy – is now a bankrupt concept. Governments are, and will continue to be, in denial about this. In the coming years they will manipulate the statistics to show that growth has returned in some small measure to reassure themselves that nothing has changed but the rhetoric will sound hollow. No-one will believe them, the cat is still dead.

I predict this because I believe we will see a system failure in society. Massive unemployment, wholesale bankruptcies, reduction in public services and the loosening grip of mainstream media on the news will create a shift in public perception. Growing environmental awareness will complete the process. Profligacy and excess in all areas of society will become unacceptable or impossible and small, community based systems of commerce will begin to appear. Central government will lose more and more influence (and revenues)  and in an ironic twist, democracy will become the power of the people rather than the rich as it was intended to be. Privilege will have to earned rather than inherited.

We had better learn those old skills of self reliance and craftsmanship. Time starts now.

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